The feeling of surprise is a dreaded one among security practitioners and decision makers. Despite warnings and signals that provide context that a threat is approaching, it can be difficult for security teams to accept the forecast until a threat is imminent.

In this episode, Fred Burton discusses the value of accurately assessing risk and pushing aside inherent biases with Scott McHugh, an expert in global crisis management. Scott shares why the human mind is poorly equipped to process uncertainty, and how his model makes sense of risk — tying threat data to a quantifiable score.

Scott McHugh is a former Special Agent with the U.S. Department of State, and served as the Federal Security Director (post 9/11) for the Department of Homeland Security. He has served in executive leadership roles, directing Asset Protection and Security for large corporations such as Walmart, and currently leads Crisis Management and Security for one of the largest chemical companies in the world — LyondellBasell. Scott is a faculty lecturer at Rice University on the subject of International Crisis Management.

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