Russia-Ukraine Conflict: History, State of Affairs and Ramifications

Below are a series of resources vetted for accuracy by the Ontic Center for Protective Intelligence. There is a lot of misinformation circulating on the conflict and we hope this serves as a resource as you work through your risk mitigation, business continuity and security plans.

History of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
It is crucial to have a complete understanding of the conflict even from its infancy. The below resources help to contextualize the issue at hand, especially for those requiring deeper analysis on the happenings.

• New York Times: The Roots of the Ukraine War: How the Crisis Developed
• The Economist: Disputed Borders: Russia and Ukraine
• Newslines Institute: Fear of Popular Revolutions Drove Putin to Attack Ukraine

Risk to Global Supply Chain
The conflict poses a significant threat to global supply chains and to the businesses that have employees, assets and customers in the region. The below resources cover supply chain issues related to politics and the effect on nationally operated corporations.

• BBC: Ukraine war: Trucks stuck at Poland-Belarus border as EU sanctions deadline passes
• Reuters: New EU sanctions on Russia to target Sberbank, Commission head tells paper
• Reuters: Germany girds for gas rationing, Europe on edge in Russian standoff
• Reuters: Tough to find alternatives for Russian thermal coal, says Japan utilities group head
• New York Times: Europe Reluctantly Readies Russian Oil Embargo
• Reuters: Greece impounds Russian tanker as part of EU sanctions against Russia
• The Independent: World faces a food crisis that will become a “human catastrophe”, World Bank warns
• Reuters: Germany will end imports of Russian oil by the end of 2022, German Foreign Minister says
• Reuters: Norway arrests activists blocking tanker unloading Russian oil
• Financial Times: Shipping boss urges Nato to provide naval escorts in the Black Sea
• U. S. Department of Agriculture: Biden Administration Announces Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Global Food Aid to Respond to Putin’s Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine
• EuroNews: Russian attacks on key bridge may affect Ukraine’s grain export plans 
• Bloomberg: Biden Approves More Gas Export Projects as Russia Cuts Supply to Europe
• The Wall Street Journal: After Russian Retreat, Ukraine’s Farmers Discover Fields Full of Mines
• NU.nl: Port of Amsterdam refuses to unload ship with Russian oil
• RFE/RL: Norway Closes Access For Russian Trucks And Ships, Joins EU’s Sanctions Regime Against Moscow
  

Cybersecurity Implications
Cyber operations continue to play a crucial role in the Russian Ukrainian war. Both directed and responsive cyber activities will be critical for organizations within globally interconnected systems.

• Harvard Business Review: The Cybersecurity Risks of an Escalating Russia-Ukraine Conflict
• Harvard Business Review: What Russia’s Ongoing Cyberattacks in Ukraine Suggest About the Future of Cyber Warfare
• Reuters: U.S. FBI says it disrupted Russian hackers
• RFE/RL: Ukraine Says Russian Hackers Tried To Attack Ukrainian Power Grid Again
• Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency: Shields Up
• Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency: Cybersecurity Agencies in the Five Eyes countries released a joint cybersecurity advisory
• U.S. Department of State: Rewards for Justice – Reward Offer for Information on Russian Military Intelligence Officers Conducting Malicious Activity Against U.S. Critical Infrastructure
• Microsoft: Special Report: An overview of Russia’s cyberattack activity in Ukraine

Geopolitical Analysis
There are many geopolitical and intelligence analysts doing deep-dives of all things related to the ongoing conflict. The below resources are for those looking for a much more in-depth analysis from trusted experts.

• The Guardian: Russia warns US of repercussions if it sends more arms to Ukraine – reports
• Associated Press: Number of Ukraine refugees passes worst-case U.N. estimate (real-time data from UNHR here)
• U.S. Embassy, Moscow: Moscow updates travel warning for Americans in Russia, warns Amcits may be singled out for detention
• Reuters: Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO
• Reuters: On Ukraine visit, Blinken, Austin pledge return of U.S. diplomats, more security aid
• Reuters: UNHCR and partners call for urgent support for refugees from Ukraine and their hosts
• The Guardian: Where is Transnistria and why is it being drawn into Ukraine war?
• Reuters: Finland, Sweden to begin NATO application in May, say local media reports
  
• Bloomberg: Biden Seeks $33 Billion More for Ukraine, Girding for Longer War
• Iltalehti: Finland decides to apply for NATO membership on May 12

Multinational Corporation Impact
This conflict undoubtedly has major repercussions on the global economy that will trickle down to every business. Below are resources that discuss the impact these events inflict on corporations, their business continuity, and the economy as a whole. 

• Reuters: Tech workers urge companies to join Ukraine’s digital blockade of Russia
• AP News: World Bank says war shocks to drag on Asian economies
• Reuters: Intel becomes latest Western tech firm to suspend business in Russia
• RFE/RL: UN Warns War In Ukraine Threatens To Devastate Many Poor Countries
• The Guardian: IMF to lower global growth forecasts due to Ukraine war and Covid
• RFE/RL: Moscow Mayor Says 200,000 Jobs At Risk In City As Western Companies Leave
• MSN: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says costs from pandemic, inflation and war are too high for company to absorb
• Reuters: Cryptocurrency exchange company Binance curbs services in Russia due to sanctions
• Wall Street Journal: Sanctions Strand Thousands of Russia-Bound Luxury Cars
• Financial Times: Hotel groups under renewed pressure to cut Russia business
• Reuters: Russian court orders seizure of $7 mln in Google’s Russian funds, property – reports
• Financial Times: BASF to wind down in Russia and Belarus
• Financial Times: EU energy groups prepare to meet Vladimir Putin’s terms for Russian gas
• European Commission: EU takes steps to suspend all duties on imports from Ukraine
• Financial Times: Companies trying to exit Russia have to ‘dance with the devil’

Military Intelligence
A collection of intel on military activity and operations are below. 

• BBC News: French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings
• The Guardian: Ukraine president warns of ‘new stage of terror’ as west probes chemical weapons claims
• The Guardian: Zelenskiy: the battle for Donbas has begun – video
• AP News: Mariupol evacuation fails, 120,000 stuck
• Reuters: Ukraine’s military boosts aircraft thanks to spare parts, Pentagon says
• RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty: Russia claims to test new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile, saying it is can defeat all forms of anti-missile defense
• Interfax: The second phase of Russia’s war in Ukraine now aims to seize more territory in Donbas and southern Ukraine to create a land corridor to the disputed Moldovan territory of Transnistria, Russian Major General Rustam Minnekaev told Russian defense industry leaders.
• CNN: Ukraine now has about 20 more operational aircraft after an influx of spare parts, Pentagon says
• AP News: Russian officer: Missile to carry several hypersonic weapons
  
• BBC News: Ukraine war: US wants to see a weakened Russia
• The Guardian: UK to send 8,000 soldiers to eastern Europe on expanded exercises
  

Nuclear Developments
As the conflict advances, nuclear developments have been brought to the forefront of the conversation as Russia contemplates its strategy moving forward.

• The Washington Post: Russian troops near Kyiv, Chernobyl are repositioning, Pentagon says
• The Guardian: Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
• Reuters: Ukraine accuses Russia of blackmail with plan to halt gas to Poland
• BBC News: Ukraine war: Could Russia use tactical nuclear weapons?
• Reuters: IAEA probing Ukraine report that missile flew over a nuclear power plant
  

Tactical Strategies
Both Russia and Ukraine’s tactics have evolved due to the scope of the conflict widening. Here are some of the logistical shifts that have occurred and the greater impact they have.

• BBC News: Roman Abramovich suffered ‘suspected poisoning’ at talks
• Bloomberg: World’s Longest Passenger Flight Planned to Avoid Russian Skies
• Reuters: Finland, Sweden set to join NATO as soon as summer, The Times reports
• Bloomberg: Ukraine Update: Russia Has Committed War Crimes, Europeans Say
• Reuters: Pentagon asks top 8 U.S. weapons makers to meet on Ukraine -sources
• Reuters: U.S. to start training Ukrainians on howitzers in coming days -official
• Bloomberg: IMF Warns of Crypto Mining as Possible Dodge on Russia Sanctions
• Reuters: Putin calls off plan to storm steel plant in Mariupol, implements blockade instead
• Bloomberg: US and allied sanctions have decreased shipments of technology products and electronic parts to Russia by more than 50%, leaving Russia without replacement parts for military needs, according to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo